My HTF DOL is reached. What now?
When my DOL is hit, there are a few things I will take into consideration:
- price hits its DOL -> are we inside a parent range? if so, are there any HTF objectives left? are there obvious liquidity pools? or are we at equilibrium? what kind of liquidity did price take out? after reaching a DOL price will likely retrace, e.g. after hitting a major previous X high or low.
X = daily, weekly, monthly, etc. whatever your "higher timeframe" is here.
- relative to other related major pairs, is there SMT? is there any weakness after reaching the DOL? e.g., EU is still going up, GU is still making higher highs and DXY is still making lower lows. does the trend continue? same principle applies to NQ/ES/YM. if you want to apply "higher level" intermarket analyses to detect a change in trend, start with bonds > DXY > major currencies/index futures. note that SMT is optional but in terms of detecting early weakness in the markets it's really an unfair advantage.
- how are we, seasonal wise? lets say EU reached a DOL in november. what are the seasonal tendencies expectations for december? e.g. EU closed bullish in november, but statistically, december will also have a bullish close. back to point 1, is there a parent range? how are we premium/discount wise? from here you can determine your new POI for re-entry and higher timeframe objective DOL
EUR/USD example
If we look at EU at the november close, it closed inside a weekly +FVG (replay tool used, didn’t made a screenshot back then)
We know for a fact that price moves: imbalance > rebalance > deliver price efficiently.
Right at that moment we're at the "rebalance" stage.

Now, looking at december's po3 and the seasonal expectation for december, you will see it plays out exactly like the data projects combined with our technicals.


Take it a step further, and look at SMT between EU and GU when forming the december low to determine the stronger pair.

SMT between EU and DXY confirmed it (not the cleanest SMT there is)

Summary:
- HTF Power Of 3
- Seasonality
- SMT